Watch this BEFORE Tesla’s earnings report this week w/ James Stephenson (Ep. 682)

I'm joined by James Stephenson as we dive into a sneak peek of Tesla's Q3 profits expectations, China threats, macro concerns, and more.

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Watch this BEFORE Tesla's earnings report this week w/ James Stephenson (Ep. 682)

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30 Comments

  1. When I watch either of you do earnings by yourselves the individual presentation gets quite monotonous, but you two work so well at giving your individual perspectives when working together.
    I thought I was going to have to force myself to pay attention, but it was easy to stay focused while watching this format.

  2. Expectations are so low, the stock could bounce after the announcement. I’m dollar cost averaging every week. If get good news I’ll buy more aggressively. hopefully the fed will pause next year, along with tax credit tesla will soar back to the highs.

    1. You must have bought around 800-700 pre-split thinking it will rocket after because it’s so cheap right now. Hopefully you’re not on leverage.

    1. Indeed….. however we have to be prepared for broader macro environments & algorithms bring the entire market back down… LONG term HOLD💰

    1. James always caveats his projections with “they will be wrong” but in his case likely only a fraction of 1% wrong….to ME that’s being right. 😀

  3. It occurs to me that Tesla might be getting dragged down a lot by negative sentiment not only for tech / growth stocks / the market / the economy, but specifically the BEV sector. Just look at Rivian, Lucid (terrible), NIO and Xpeng (questionable but having potential), for example.

    In 3 to 5 years, the global BEV growth, infrastructure growth, battery chemistry improvements, and Tesla’s place in all of that (discounting any success for FSD or Tesla-bot) should provide a LOT of headroom, given how low the PE is already getting in 2022 for the quarterly run-rate earnings, considering the massive growth rate for Tesla.

    I can wait, having no risk to leverage.

  4. We have to remember that notwithstanding any competitive entrance or pricing, the demand for EVs globally will continue to grow and as legacy manufacturers start stumbling this demand will grow exponentially

  5. Tesla shld break down its car price for certain features instead of cutting price to meet incentive requirements. Putting some features as later added on features to reduce the base price. For example, eliminating warranty benefits from base price (may give 30 days only) and let buyers to add later on.

    1. Agree with the premise, but not with the warranty suggestion. The reaction of buyers, news media, competitors, analysts and the general public perception to a reduced warranty would be brutal.
      Even a ‘warranty reduction” option could generate huge negative publicity.

    1. Situation normal for Tesla, 2017/18 it was far scarier with M3 ramp issues, barely making payroll, then the scamdemic and now the repercussions from idiotic Authoritarian government policies.

  6. There’s so much FUD right now, really affecting perceptions. Interest rates affecting Tesla leasing badly in 2023, the ‘competition coming’ argument etc.

  7. Multiple times I wished Dave Lee would reply with a statement like “tell the audience why you feel this way,” or ” and why does this matter?” Or “tell the idiots out there that might not know , explain this to them” – like I wish Dave Lee would play a little more of an audience education role like most good interviewers like Joe Rogan does this really well

  8. Superbly articulated info here. Overall trend still bearish though recent price action shows evidence that a bottom may be forming, trapping late Bears as the FED continue to get calls for a pivot. I endeavor to always share my thoughts and analysis/alerts on my channel.

  9. Very informative, thank you for exposing the data.
    One risk is economic down turn next year, worldwide.

  10. Dave mentioning 50% growth and James going along with that for 2023 estimates appears to essentially ignore Texas and Berlin output. I am forecasting a 75% to 95% YoY delivery increase for 2023. And because Tesla Energy will come into its own in 2023, along with increasing vehicle ASP, revenue will increase by an even higher percentage than deliveries.

  11. I read and looked at the charts from James on Twitter before I watched this.
    As always, excellent analysis from James and straightfoward disussion on this epeisode.
    Thanks for posting.

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