I share my thoughts on the following exchange on X:
DavidSHolz: we need to be anticipating a billion humanoid robots on earth in the 2040s and a hundred billion (mostly alien) robots throughout the planetary system in the 2060s
Elon Musk: Most likely something like that, supplied the structures of civilization are stable
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I have some Terminator vibes here Dave😮
Dave this is a great presentation, but i think we need to pause and reflect on the downsides of smartphone use…before rushing in to humanoid robots…
Nothing like that has ever happened because if Tesla don’t do it someone else will.
indeed… but we have never done that before so… this time will not be any diferent.
If you think about it, once you got the robot it can produce itself and scale almost endless.
If a Tesla Optimus robot can make another Optimus robot in 5 days (they don’t need to sleep, so that’s 120 hours) then by the end of a year (320 days actually) you’d have…
18,446,744,073,709,551,616 robots!
We’re going to need a bigger warehouse 🤣
This is a good point, but also need to include the logistics chain required. Say 5 – 10 Optimus bots working on logistics for every one working on product. To me this is CLEARLY the way Mars (and later planets) will be colonized. Humans will be outnumbered by robots on Mars 10:1 in the early days, not sure by how much more later on.
You nailed this topic, Dave. The only thing I would add is the SIGNIFICANT difference between phones/cars, which are 1:1/1:4 ratio of adoption per human, compared to humanoid robots, which will be much higher/human in ratio. When you account for the fact that the robots will be manufacturable laborers with, say 70% of human capabilities (in the near term), you can easily project 2:1, even 5:1 humanoid robots per person, planetwide, on a 30-year timeline. Reminds me of Asmov’s novel, The Naked Sun, where the planet Solaria develops with 10,000 robots per human eventually.
I can see Robot will be everywhere in the future because they are expandable. Space exploration, manufacturing, building hard labor!
Dave, what do you think about Elon wanting 25% of Tesla. He can have 25% as long as he’s growing the company. But I would like to know your thoughts on it.
90%* of wealth generation doesn’t involve hands, just shifting money, organising others to do work.
Can we get AI replicate supercomputer of Musk? Of Mary Barra? Of Bob Iger?
Are billionaires at most risk? CEOs? Or stand to benefit most?
* WAG, not actual data.
open AI will have the superior robot brain. Is this still a solid investment if we’re partnering?
always love to hear your point of view, yes I am investing 100% in tala stocks for the next 10 years plus .❤
Imagine an army of bots able to build a house….likely still decades away. But damn. Amazing houses that cost only materials. Will be insane.
materials + regulation cost
There are always limits to growth.
Need a massive, standard use case – shelf stacking, stock picking, Amazon deliveries.
Something 24/7/365, tedious, offensive, dangerous.
Totally agree dual class Tesla share structure – is it feasible? What are the options?
Apple will sell robot arm and leg separately
I actually commented about this on a Steven Mark Ryan post that the human/robot ratio across the solar system is probably about 1000/1 and it will be quicker than we think. Keep in mind that only 1.5 children are born to every woman on Earth and that trend continues to decrease so by the 2060s we may only see a population of half of what we see today.
Take a shot every time a Tesla Youtuber says “Order of magnitude” or “First principals”.
Elderly care will be so much better. I’ll need on in 15 to 20 years.
The 2040’s, I will be dead by then.
I can’t even get my robot vacuum from getting stuck every other day. Robot expectations are real high, but they’re no where near to meeting expectations.