TSLA price targets short-term and long-lasting – how to evaluate.
Social
Twitter
Apple Podcast:
Spotify.
Instagram.
Dave Lee on Parenting,.
KEEP IN MIND: Please do not fall for scammers who may impersonate me or others in the comment section. I do NOT offer my number or ask people to contact me.
♂ Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for discussion and illustrative purposes only and must not be construed as expert monetary guidance or recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Must you need such suggestions, speak with a licensed monetary or tax advisor. All views expressed are individual viewpoint since date of recording and undergo alter without responsibility to update views. No guarantee is offered concerning the precision of information on this channel. Neither host or guests can be delegated any direct or incidental loss sustained by using any of the information used. Author is long TSLA and other stocks sometimes of initial video publish date. When you purchase through links in this video description, author may make an affiliate commission.
Open an brokerage account at Interactive Brokers:.
Take a look at my archived articles/posts on Tesla and investing:.
#Tesla #TSLA #Stocks.
Wealth Builders Club Secrets Revealed – Click Here to Discover the #1 Investment Resource!
As Martin tried to suggest, disciplined analysts set price targets by going out 3-5 years and forecasting net income in 3-5 years and an appropriate multiple 3-5 years out. They then discount that future value back at an appropriate cost of equity to reflect TSLA’s riskiness. My $550 TSLA PT is based on my 2026 EPS of $20.80, and applying a 40x P/E based on 20% long term growth rate and 2x PEG, which produces a 2026 PT of $832. I then discount that future price target back to 2022 at a 13.6% cost of equity (4% 10-yr TY, 6% equity risk premium, and 1.6x beta = 13.6%). That 12 month price target is $550. I only change my PT if my revenue and earnings forecast changes — not if the stock price changes.
Gary has a fanboi. That’s so cute.
$550 PT. That’s cute.
Well bois, my TSLA 2025 PT is $5500 per share.
I am Kimchi Teslam and I own 3300 shares of TSLA from 2019 and also a M3P. LETS GO TO MARS OUTTA WAY BABY
Thanks for the formulas gary
@Phoenixklinge I agree. I would slash that in half, especially given Gary’s assumptions of 20% LT growth rate. This basically slashes the PT in half, which gives a bit more margin of safety. PT of $275 based on the scenario Gary explained above.
I actually think it is too conservative. Tesla P/E at 56 today, but Q3 2022 reported net income (earnings) growth of 103% year over year. Because of operating leverage, Tesla’s earnings grow at faster rate than top line revenue and earnings explode as top line grows 30-40% (which they’re on pace to do again)
After studying my bachelors on finance, i realised price targets are all just so subjective. I just look at economic moat, cashflows and debt.
That phenomenon of analysts adapt their targets by how the stock price changes must be really prevalent, because even I who don’t follow the analysts have noticed that!
I do a 5 year prognosis and back propagate that to get a fair stock price for today. It’s usually enough to make a very rough calculation, leaving anything not realized on the table, as extras if they are realized.
If you are sure about what a stock is worth, you trade much better. For example, you don’t sell it when the price is lower than you think is a fair price. You buy more, if you can!
The principle becomes that you don’t hold stocks which you would sell if the price goes down!
To let others, i. e. analysts, determine what a fair stock price is doesn’t give you that confidence to hold them when they are down. So you sell them when you should buy more!
The only thing which makes you sell your long-term holdings is when things you based your calculations on changes. That’s the only reason you don’t just forget about them and just hold them.
Your language learning app sounds amazing. We moved our family abroad recently and are now learning a new language. I agree, the industry needs to be disrupted. The way current apps teach language is just terrible. Wish you the best!
Dave, have been watching you for years. I’ve not yet figured out why but this might be your best video so far. I think it has something to do with you framing your thought process. Spilled a lot of wisdom/understanding here, which you’ve not really allowed yourself in your scripted content.
Tesla is such a great potential but Musk sandbags the entire company and he removes from this company any quiet and enjoyment in investing with Tesla by is impulsive blurts and also his unreliable promises and wild actions which right now is Twitter- so all of this halts new entrants buying into the stock and creates such doubt and annoyance to investors who may have committed to this psychological bully who actually cares nothing for shareholders- many of which probably are waiting for an opportunity to escape and get out far away. So to calculate any estimate here is really not possible in any conventional way. FOMO is the only trigger that will move this price and it will always be in huge spikes and massive drops – nothing is normal here- it’s like herding cats.
Congratulations Dave on 700 episodes, I’ve been with you since the beginning, you are a great human.
you can’t make more crazy and efficient car than Aptera… So I have no high expectations from next Tesla model.
Interesting David…now you know schools are obsolete..apps are the schooling system on your phone!
40:35 WHAT, HOW??
Is this a coincidence or we are in a simulation??
And just so you know, the seed is random so even if you write the same thing the gpt will not, and doesn’t have memory except from what you write first.
Hey Dave – Will Tesla build dedicated Trailers for the Semi? Imagine 4680 structural trailer with solar panel roof and regen braking? What a package!!! Would dominate the Trucking market …
No, trailers aren’t owned by the truck, the international standardization of the trailer was one of the best things for the trucking and transport industry. The semi battery is 500Kwh, solar over the whole trailer isn’t going to do much of anything. Batteries in the trailer would complicate the electrical connections, there are currently some, but they aren’t high amperage. You also can’t put batteries in both the truck and the trailer, as the pack voltage would be at different levels.
Dave is so good at explaining that should be on Discovery Channel…😏
@WIZARD TOWER Actually, a lot of dumb people watch that stuff… Dave could teach them something…😊
optimus, robotaxi 😂😂😂 maybe after 2030
Elon should focus to deliver cybertruck, fsd, for now he is promissing a lot and losing focus with stuff like twitter
think Tesla not working much on the 20k car since it will mean just useless competition and apparently they have big market for their luxury cars
Wow, some actual reasoning and thought related to what fundamentals are, and how they affect the ongoing value of a business.
Dave, what you are describing is more the process of evaluating a company’s future strategy and competitive position. This is all fine.. but will result in a rather complex output. Yes, price targets are subject to many variables but if they are based on sensible assumptions (including the output of the foregoing competitive analysis) then they can still represent an important and helpful metric.. and price targets have the huge benefit that they can expressed as a single number rather than as complex output. In short, I don’t disagree with you about the importance of understanding a company’s fundamentals but imo you have framed the question in a confusing manner…
IMHO the technology that will move the needle will be AI, and the product initially to benefit will be FSD. So, if FSD is anywhere as good as forecast, adoption will be assured and effortless with a simple approach. Tesla insurance is the key. FSD is ten times safer, then offer rates fully half or more of what Liberty, GEICO, and Progressive charge and still make a modest profit. Add huge insurance savings to the other benefits of owning a Tesla and adoption will happen regardless of the regulators.
Here’s my model, Let’s say FSD at $69 subscription a month and if tesla has 10M cars out by 2030 or early. $69 x 10M = $690,000,000 x 12 months = $8,280,000,000
Yesssss education apps will become huge.
Just bought Duolingo a few weeks ago. Please do a deep dive on them, I believe this is a multibagger opportunity with strong leadership, moat and optionality.
You are great ….Thank you for furthering my education!! (I’m only 73}😉