I discuss thoughts from Tesla's Q4 2023 revenues report, investor letter, and Elon Musk's comments to financiers.
Tesla Q4 2023 investor letter:
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Coming to Dave for common sense with a little of cool aid juice.
Thanks Dave for a balanced view as always! Looking forward to you and James discussing v12 after you get a chance to test it out!
James thinks 1000 dollars by 2030 😮
Wow thanks Dave for boiling the results down to a 10 min vid…. goooot jooooob
Thanks for adding much needed clarity to the analysis. I always appreciate and enjoy your discussions and calm, unbiased reviews.
I was waiting for this! Thanks Dave
$7500 up front rebate is like a huge interest rate drop ! LOWER PAYMENTS
Great summary Dave. I’ve been saying for awhile Tesla needs to manage these calls better & express thought much more clearly. Dave you’re the best.
I appreciate your honesty. And your clear, concise breakdown.
Dave is downplaying the Cybertruck ramp between Model Y and “Next Gen”. Hardly “limbo”, many Cybertruck manufacturing improvements will be important ingredients of “Next Gen”.
I had iniially thought that the long term volume of 3/Y would be 4 to 5 million per. Looks like I was off by half. Although I still wonder what the volumes would be with lower interest rates?
As Elon said at the 2018 shareholder meeting, only two things matter: overcoming global battery constraints and solving FSD (and now Optimus). The next-gen ramp must be timed such that battery supply can keep up—that’s why they’ve waited. And focusing on volume over margins increases fleet size, which is their FSD moat. Don’t panic!
I have reduced my position for the first time in years. The stock has done nothing for over 3 now, which means we’re losing money due to inflation. The next gen vehicle may be there ‘perhaps’ in 2 years, which will put the stock sideways, at best, for 2 more. What kind of competition will it face when it comes out ? Will Elon do AI at Tesla or finally not ? The decade long potential is still there, but the risks are only increasing.
I agree with everything you said and am invested for the long term. I understand Elon comes with both plusses and minuses and you can’t have one without the other.
Nonetheless, Tesla’s refusal to give any guidance about production or margins and refusal to fight actively against FUD is damaging to its long term goals and frustrating for investors.
Elon wants the stock price to go much lower short term so his new Tesla contract won’t look too crazy expensive and thus, an opportunity for him to accumulate 25% total Tesla shares before he pumps it up again with crazy growth of next gen vehicle.
It would really help if folks share (ballpark is good enough) how many shares they own for perspective e.g. someone saying I am so down and crying about it when owning 5 shares..you get my point.
Holding 941 all in I’m 61 was hoping to start selling next year and retire but looks like I’ll have to postpone that for another couple of years!
Kinda pissed but could be worse and I’m confident for the long term
I’m doubtful about the rollout of FSD anytime soon.
With the share price down, is this the time for Tesla to do a share buyback?
Tesla is always pushing the edge of technology in their vehicles and the processes used to make them. This results in uncertainty in their schedules and big institutional investors hate uncertainty. It is clear that Tesla is unfazed by this. You have to be tough to be a Tesla retail investor. The ride is filled with joy and pain. More pain than joy in the last few years, unfortunately.
Im glad the more volume less margin won, cause i haven’t gotten a model Y yet. Lol.
If FSD 12 is as good as it looks, will probably pull the trigger this year.