Tesla just revealed this SECRET FSD Advantage (Ep. 733)

How close is Tesla FSD to resolving autonomous driving? How close is the competition? What are the challenges?

Tesla is preparing to have 100 Exa-Flops of compute power to train FSD by end of next year.

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Tesla just revealed this SECRET FSD Advantage (Ep. 733)

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  1. People don’t intuitively understand exponential growth, yet it exists everywhere in nature.
    Small trajectory changes and inputs early on (ie decisions like going vision only years ago) yield massive strides over time. Love your short and sweet videos Dave!

    1. for real life example, people should look into rats and feral pigs population explosion to get a general sense of how fast things can accumulate.

    2. Problem is, exponential works the other way as well. I contend that the value of the data Tesla is collecting decreases over time exponentially. The first video of an occluded stop sign? Really valuable. The thousandth? Ten thousandth? Meanwhile, there are companies such as Parallel Domain, Waabi, NVIDIA DRIVE Sim, etc. whose purpose is to create virtual worlds where interesting edge cases can be generated all day long for training.

  2. As a Tesla investor, the harder it is to solve FSD, the better it is for the stock once it is solved, because it will take A LONG time for anyone to then catch up.

  3. Brilliant points. Also, the stories of your travels are almost as fascinating as your business content! Thanks for posting!

  4. Hey Dave, picking up on your point about Tesla using even the non-FSD vehicles to assist in training by gathering”edge” cases from the entire fleet, I’m trying to explain why my ’22 Model Y with FSD continues to flub seemingly easy maneuvers in my quiet suburban neighborhood where dozens of folks own Teslas. I’ve been testing since 11.4.2 through 11.4.4 and I’ve seen no improvement in several specific cases. The most notable scenario is making a left turn at a basic 4-way intersection with no obstructions where only the cross street has a stop sign. No lane markings, wide streets, no parked cars near intersection. The expected behavior when no other traffic is present is that the car would slow a bit below the 25mph limit but NOT stop before making the turn. The Tesla seems confused every time as it approaches, and ends up hard braking as it comes to the edge of the intersection. I have intervened maybe a dozen times at this point across all these versions and recorded a message about how inappropriate it is to stop at such an intersection where there is no stop sign and no traffic and noted how dangerous it is because they guy BEHIND is not expecting to stop. I’ve intervened repeatedly for other situations as well that you’d think it should have learned from by now, but this is certainly the least excusable given the dead simplicity of the scenario. While I understand the theoretical data advantages and ML principles frequently discussed here, this real-life experience seems to contradict all that so curious what folks think might be going on. Thanks!

  5. Wow! Great to see another of your videos, Dave! I follow you because you’re genuinely smart, integral and spiritual. I’m not sure if you believe in telepathy, but this morning, I suddenly wondered: “Oh, what would happen to Dave? I haven’t seen any of his videos recently”. And boom! I’ve just checked my computer and the first recommended video was this! Amazing, isn’t it?

  6. Hi Dave and family – awesome to get a vid from you! Show us some of your travel experiences. Wonder if one would be able to take one’s Tesla along all over the world. One sure place to test FSD would be in developing countries where road rules are fluid

  7. Tesla FSD is impressively good and has been getting increasingly better especially with the last few updates. It’s much more confident in switching lanes, asserting itself in traffic, etc.

    That said, on my daily route there are a couple of locations it has been struggling with and either always has or has regressed.

    There’s a very sharp two lane left turn onto a highway on ramp. FSD fails to stay in its lane and would drive off other traffic taking the same turn at the same time if one doesn’t intervene.

    Just up ahead is a another junction with two straight lanes and two left turn lanes. All lanes have lights. When waiting in the left turn lane FSD will occasionally apply the signals for going straight ahead to itself and try to drive out into the intersection while the left turn signal is still red.

    Each of these is along my daily route and potentially catastrophic if not corrected for. FSD will need to reliably avoid failure like this *at scale* to be able to be driven unmonitored. I’m afraid it might still take quite a while before we are there.

    There’s a road with a dedicated left turn lane that has a traffic light. FSD always mistakes the left turn traffic light to apply to the main forward direction and tries to stop when the left turn light is red going straight.

  8. First thanks for the frank discussion and, I want to thank the Tesla team for their hard work and getting us this far. I’m in the camp that we are a few years away from the target. Here in hilly, lumpy roads PA FSD is challenged, and to be fair so are human drivers. In many situations you can’t see the cars hidden by the road depressions. You end up counting to 3 in hopes of pulling out to merge safely. Some other edge cases are not moving forward after a train gate has risen, but then speeding across the rough tracks. Not always recognizing the back of a semi tractor, when they aren’t pulling a trailer. The most annoying item is considering side lanes that are only for business turnoffs as driving lanes. I partially solved this by reducing the lane changing action. On narrow mountain roads FSD works well generally, until you get to a bridge where the painted road line and bridge barrier are in the same vertical position, FSD drops out as you are getting too close to the barrier.
    Overall, I’ve seen great progress over my 6 years of driving my MS!

  9. Thanks Dave. Life will dramatically change in the future for the better with FSD once it is perfected. I am no spring chicken. At the age of 72 I will one day have to surrender my car do to being incompetent. I live in SF Calif a highly populated city. About 6 months ago my FSD took me from my house thru heavy traffic to get my appointment for a vaccination. I was so impressed that my car made the 4 mile trip with no intervention. I was a bit tense letting my car drive me to my destination but it did. Amazing is all I can say. I plan to visit my son in Los Angeles and can’t wait this week to use FSD. YES LIFE AS WE KNOW IT WON’t be the same. Maybe a few Tesla Bots to help me as I become less mobile. Heeeheeee. This won’t be my parents when they aged.

    1. Most drivers in NJ are incompetent and they don’t take their licenses away so if fsd doesn’t work out you could move to NJ.

  10. I have a sense using AI generated road data for autonomous training is where action is. It’s a great way to fashion and test edge cases. I wonder how long will it take to train an FSD model with 100 exoflops of compute? Will daily updates of FSD be possible? Thanks for the video.

  11. Thank you Dave! We have missed you but happy to hear you are traveling with your family. I guess you heard about all the crazy fsd fud going on over here. I’m happy you gave your opinion. Have fun 😊

  12. Great to hear from you Dave… Your point is FSD needs to looked at in terms of exponential growth/potential in terms of both the size of the fleet and computing power of dojo. Last distinction is the chips used are also specifically designed for Tesla not one’s off the shelf. These elements all work together in a synergistic way.

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