Inflation, Recession, Tesla stock split, FSD Beta w/ Emmet Peppers (Ep. 614)

I'm joined by Emmet Peppers as we go over the stock market, inflation, recession, TSLA, Tesla FSD Beta, and more.

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Inflation, Recession, Tesla stock split, FSD Beta w/ Emmet Peppers (Ep. 614)

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  1. 8:22 The Good News is Tesla

    10:28 Tesla Stock Split 3-1

    15:13 Emmet on Tesla FSD Beta

    10:53 Emmet’s Conversations with Skeptics “Don’t let perfect be the enemy of good”

    22:55 AI Shift: Best & Brightest now work for private companies

    24:54 Tesla has progressed farther than most people realize

    26:35 Tesla FSD Beta is saving lives “Disaster Prevention Benefit”

    27:50 Tesla is moving very fast toward predicting intent

    1. I just want to point out something about the edge case problem. probably 98% of roads are not edge cases. Since Tesla has been mapping the whole country, it seems like a very simple thing to flip a switch, and suddenly the worst edge case areas are zones that FSD will avoid, go around, whatever. I can’t imagine why they wouldn’t do that at some point.

    2. @Sebo S they’ll make detailed maps before that, which will eliminate all of the problems due to edge cases due to crazy roads/permanent things.

  2. 12 more months of buying power I know I will be just fine leaning into to this opportunity of a life time. Will I be able to buy Tesla under $600 I think so and I’m hopeful I can!

    1. TSLA on the daily chart is pretty ugly. the last seven days TSLA rejected at the trendline resistance. With futures is red I think TSLA open gap down to $620.

  3. I have a lot of respect for Emmet. Admitting that margin has hurt him wasn’t something that many would do.

    Margin has ravaged my portfolio and changed the trajectory of my life now. Bummer, but it’s another college course for me on investing in the stock market. All of the other lessons have hurt really bad too but the knowledge has more than paid for itself to date. Hopefully this lesson will too someday.

    1. Almost exactly like you, invest whole 400k into tesla with cost 900, I just keep selling covered call at my cost price to earn some cash.

    2. @小米 sam here…my cost basis is a bit better @800… and Im kind freaking out now.

      what is your strike and DTE for covered calls?

      Another noob question – what happens when you sell a call and a split happens?

  4. Gary Marcus is a classic academic, not an engineer, I’m sure he could explain in great detail why aeroplanes can’t fly unless the wings flap.

  5. I feel the recession personally already. I used to have extra money to invest and now that prices are down I can’t seem to squeeze out any extra cash to take advantage of the dip. My boss has been holding out on bonuses.

  6. With the massive fiscal spending and the FED on crack even Stevie Wonder could have seen inflation coming.

  7. Always enjoy when you two chat. Your Sunday night chats remind of hearing the “60 Minutes” music as a child. The music reminded me that school was coming in the morning. And now your Sunday evening chats remind me that fresh unrealized losses are coming in the morning! 🙂

    1. Back when Tesla was over a thousand he was talking about how he’d gone on margin, so I imagine he’s under a fair amount of strain.

  8. The key is thinking long-term and recognizing that market volatility is inevitable. So too are recessions and depression, all are apart of the cadence of the stock market. We cannot lose focus on where companies are going and how they will be apart of our future so of course, stick with “recession proof” stocks that stood the test of time and are only likely to do so yet again now think AAPLs and MSFTs for tech, JNJ and MDTs for healthcare, LOW/HD or KOs and PEPs…. Not too complicated, but practice patience for your ROI!

  9. Investors need to realize the longer it takes Tesla to solve FSD, the more bullish it is for TSLA stock! It means that the AV problem is so extremely difficult, much more than any of us really understands. So if it takes Tesla another 2 years to solve, it may take the competition another 5. If it takes Tesla another 5 years to solve, it may take the competition another 10!

    One thing is certain, Tesla will be the first!

    1. FSD has been on the horizontal portion of an S Curve.
      The gradient is now increasing.
      More data.
      Better “understanding”.
      Fewer edge cases.
      The trends associated will keep changing and the gradient increasing.
      And as the first two increase and are embedded, there’s more spare capacity for dealing with the edge cases.

  10. If FSD could reduce or eliminate most or all rear end collisions that would be great.
    Most people follow too closely to the car in front of them or they do a poor job of understanding how long it will take to stop.
    Many of those rear end collisions are from inattentiveness, (phone, texting, eating, distracted by children or dog, changing music, or looking out the side window). FSD can greatly reduce the number of accidents or injury in these circumstances.

  11. For someone who is still suffering everyday 9 years after an accident from a lady texting and driving..
    I am all in on FSD beta; tech takes time.

    Long Tsla.

  12. There is a lot of cash on the sidelines and this will be allocated to cash generating businesses so I think TSLA will do well.

  13. Any time is a good time for a split, if you have amazing products (and launching great new products)!

  14. I have had the pleasure of riding along with an FSD beta user and have seen a few cases at least where we would have made the wrong decisions. So FSD in my opinion is already better than most human drivers -and will continue to get better. No I don’t think perfection will be achieved as soon as we would like but the stats will be increasingly impossible to deny

  15. Friday, I bought a used Leaf to zip around town while I wait for my Cybertruck. Keeping the Camry for long trips, but our town hit $4.70/gal and I decided enough was enough when electricity here is $0.09/kWh

  16. Emmet, your comment about Grocking brings up the phenomena that Google’s PaLM paper found which is that there is discontinuity in model performance improvement as the amount of parameters of the NN model increases. Typically, what we find is that as you scale up the size of the performance, you get roughly linear improvements in performance rather than decreasing returns to scale, which is unusual in the world but common for neural networks. It was thought that there may be an upper limit to which we’d start to see performance taper off as the model gets bigger, but the PaLM paper seems to show that, at some point, performance increases more than linearly (which is why they called it discontinuous, since performance looks like it just shoots up) and gains new functions. That may suggest we can keep scaling up the models and they’ll get better and better. The challenge is how do you fit such large models into smaller hardware that you can fit in the car.

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