I'm signed up with by James Douma discuss his current "best" FSD Beta drive in California/Oregon, Elon Musk's discuss FSD and TSLA, and thoughts on Tesla competitors.
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Timestamps:
00:00 – Introduction
00:45 – Impressions utilizing Starlink
04:30 – James Douma current FSD Beta experience
09:30 – FSD Beta speed indications
11:11 – Difficulty of hairpin turns
15:50 – FSD Beta enhancements
18:30 – vs Waymo or Cruise
25:45 – 5 year behind? Or more?
31:50 – Market overlook FSD because of unpredictability
34:30 – Will every cars and truck manufacturer have Level 4 in a couple of years?
36:55 – Autonomous driving for consumer cars and trucks vs industrial taxis
45:50 – Elon Musk: Without FSD, Tesla generally worth no … what does that indicate?
51:55 – What type of humanoid robotic model will Tesla show at Tesla AI Day 2022?
59:25 – Conclusion
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Thank you guys for your input on FSD – it’s invaluable as always! I consider myself a very determined person, but the amount of confidence boost I get in FSD after such interview really surprises me. Thank you 👍
It’s been a while since we’ve heard some wisdom from you James great to have you back!!
Just stumbled on to you recently, I must say I love the way you break things down. Been binge listening on Spotify your podcast backlog and thoroughly keeps me smiling while I work. 😄👍🏽
The longer it takes Tesla to solve FSD, the more ahead their lead is.
Sounds counterintuitive, but this is because it shows just how much more difficult the problem of AV is than any of us realize. At this point, I have 0 doubt Tesla will solve it first.
@E F at a maximum speed of 30 miles per hour between the hours of 10 p.m. to 6 a.m. on select streets in San Francisco… And the passengers are as today, not yet paying. What Cruise does is impressive, but scalability seems hard…
Supplemental conjecture: if Tesla doesn’t have enough supply chain, then no one has enough supply chain.
@Rik Declercq I’ve learned that Tesla bears don’t listen to logical arguments, but glad to see you are using them.
@Rik Declercq Tesla can’t even do that.
@E F
“Tesla can’t even do that”?
Did you watch (listen) to the conversation?
I’d love to see James’s evaluation for Tesla’s Stock price with FSD success and then the Bot! X 10 and then x100?
At least X10
@Rui Yang Yes I agree the x10 for an FSD robotaxi service is rather conservative.
I used to live midway along the 128 stretch between Cloverdale and the coast and FSD circa mid-2021 would try to kill you dozens of times along the route, so an intervention-free drive is a *massive* accomplishment! Congratulations FSD team!
That must have been exciting !!
Really like watching James Douma on the show. Keep up the great videos Dave!
James is right that we are lucky to have a situation where “one person” (Elon) was able to just make the decision to place that bet.
@beck99o On the other hand, I could see Teslas needing a retrofit to give back-seat passengers more info and control (how do you make it start the ride?, stop the ride? Emergency stop?, how do you call the taxi service center if there is an issue? How do they contact you?) Tesla has no experience in that. There is more to a taxi service than just the taxi. I suspect Waymo found that out in AZ, and that is why they are rolling out so slowly.
@jasonk125 but Apple are way mo’ profitable than Samsung.
As they say “Turnover is vanity, profit is sanity”.
@jasonk125 lighten up. James ageeed that Tesla is at least 5 years ahead of any of the competition.
@jasonk125 XPeng, sure sounds impressive, but this is a company that has never turned a profit, makes less than 100k cars a year it seams. Seems to me they may not survive the coming crunch, so maybe putting expensive lidars in and selling for $25k is not the best idea. These lidars are also definitely not of the same quality and field of view as the kind that Waymo and Cruise has.
@jasonk125
Go back and listen to what James actually said.
Thanks Dave & James. I always look forward to and love these interviews with James. I find that my thoughts on Tesla align with both of you in many ways. Also James’s enthusiasm for technology and deep knowledge of this subject always impresses me.
I’d love to see James debate the AI “experts”, such as the ones that went on Emmet’s show.
were they poo pooing Tesla’s FSD?
James gets into way more depth. He seems to actually use the technology as opposed to the 2 guys on good soil, who clearly are just theorists
@Shaine Thielke James would likely not want to bother with them, a waste of his time
James is the kind wise guy spend no time arguing with idiots.
If they’re aware of it at all, I think a lot of people still think FSD is still decades off, or maybe never. I think this will come as a shock.
Love, love, love James’ enthusiasm. Especially coming from him. So bummed, not having FSD in the Netherlands.
Having lived in Cupertino and having parents living on the southern Oregon coast I have made the trip that James described dozens of times and found it easy to follow his descriptions. The turns are tight and the trees are close to the road. As FSD gets better we might take the trip again just to marvel at how good it is and…sip a few wines
I’ve been super impressed with fsd but for some reason this latest release was a huge step backwards for me… everyone else has been raving about it
Refreshing to have someone that actually understands what’s going on going through the FSD experience.
ive discussed optimus with many people– if the robot can simply walk around, and pick up dishes and load them into a dishwasher… its a billion dollar project. if it can pump gas… 10 billion dollar project. if it can fold laundry… 100 billion dollar project.
I think the robot is part of master plan part 3. Tesla has hirering problems in low class jobs. So they use their employes with something like google glas or maybe even cameras in the factory and autopilot neural net to train the robots to replace factory workers. It would allow them to scale faster and drive down production cost over time.
I had experienced so many similar feelings during my FSD testing as James mentioned in this video.
I’m planning soon to have a road trip about it 190 mi (300km) purely on FSD no highways whatsoever. I am very excited about it and waiting for the results.
So grateful to Dave and James for these sessions. Thank you so much!
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I equally also wonder what to choose if I’m buying in this bearish season
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