Elon Musk’s Super BAD Feeling – Tesla Stock (Ep. 609)

How do you think Tesla will fare throughout a worldwide recession?

Apple Podcast:
Dave Lee on Parenting,.

KEEP IN MIND: Please do not succumb to fraudsters who may impersonate me or others in the comment section. I do NOT provide my number or ask individuals to contact me.

♂ Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for conversation and illustrative functions only and must not be construed as professional financial suggestions or recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Should you need such advice, seek advice from a licensed monetary or tax advisor. All views expressed are personal viewpoint since date of recording and are subject to change without responsibility to upgrade views. No assurance is offered regarding the accuracy of information on this channel. Neither host or guests can be delegated any direct or incidental loss incurred by applying any of the details provided. Author is long TSLA and other stocks sometimes of initial video publish date. When you purchase through links in this video description, author might make an affiliate commission.

Open an brokerage account at Interactive Brokers:.

Have a look at my archived articles/posts on Tesla and investing:.

#Tesla #TSLA #Stocks.

Elon Musk’s Super BAD Feeling – Tesla Stock (Ep. 609)

Wealth Builders Club
Wealth Builders Club Secrets Revealed – Click Here to Discover the #1 Investment Resource!

You May Also Like

About the Author: Richard Money


  1. I suspect Elon’s “super bad feeling” was triggered by new 2022 car sales data for all the other OEMs—we are now in the actual valley of death where ICE sales collapse, without sufficient EV production to cover for the shortfall. This will create a domino effect where OEMs and their suppliers both have to shutter due to huge losses in revenue.

    1. @Glynn Powell I’ve been through several recessions. They have more than enough backlog to prevent a reduction in production for some time- probably a couple years. Yes, they will see a reduction in backlog and cancellations with cars in production but the impact should be relatively small. Hopefully they’ll lower prices in the meantime.

    2. @Julio Chao if you’re talking about the legacy OEMs those dynamics have been in place for a long time. A recession will help the likes of Tesla consolidate their position. Lithium and other metals prices will drop, cars price can be reduced, and will allow cash rich companies like Tesla to expand.

    3. Hybrids are selling very well in Toronto. Even ICE cars sell quickly, in high demand. There’s not enough level 2 public charging facilities and condo high rise residents refuse to buy EVs, they’re all buying hybrids and Toyota produces the most hybrids.

    4. @Ivy Tan Hybrids cost more to produce electricity than utility power grids. Carrying around an ICE to generate electricity as gas prices rise means the cost to generate electricity rises while BEVs see lower cost to produce electricity due to new technology replacing fossil fuel sources.

  2. Its all about ability to manufacture at a profit and company debt / liabilities . VW is reputed to lose about $3,500 on every EV across its range , its debt / liabilities are reused to be $400 BILLION . Ford is having to choose between E mustang and F150 Lightning for the limited access it has to batteries . Tesla on the other hand will have increased its production capacity by about 80% within 12-18 months as facilities step up production and the new China plant comes on line ,Elon has secured mineral supply unlike every other car company . Then you have several segments they are expanding into , Cyber truck , Semi truck ,Possible Van ,Bus , taxi , Government fleet sales , Car rental companies . Tesla insurance , is coming along nicely ,AI , robots , etc . Finance is not a problem for them and in a recession they may actually take over some companies at cheap prices like they did with Maxwell . I think Tesla is a company that will grow in a recession because Governments need EV to replace ICE cars to meet their emission targets , high fuel prices mean EV are much cheaper to run , retained value of Tesla cars is much higher than unknown brands so accounting wise the higher price is negated . As Tesla expands into grid stabilisation and power supply you have another source of profit . Hard to see GM , Ford or VW having so many opportunities to expand , but they can loose a lot of sales of ICE vehicle .Simply put a person who buys a Ford F150 to replace his existing truck just chooses the Lighting version rather than the ICE version , net net no new sales .

    1. That was well worded, however Ford sources the pack’s for the e transit and mach e from lg chems Poland plant line’s.
      The lightning pack’s come from the sk innovation plant in commerce GA. 👍🏻

    2. Your VW debt doesn’t reflect accurately. Mostly from their finance division. They make arbitrage profit on it

    3. @RC18 Ford and SK announced it will build a joint plant in GA , its due for completion in 2024 .All battery manufacturers need raw material like Nickel with most now unavailable because it comes from Russia . Indonesia is the second largest supplier and Elon has deals with them for nickel , he did that last year , so supply is going to be short next year . Elon will be suppling Nickel to his battery producers as he has long term contracts a lot cheaper that todays price . He also just did a deal for Lithium out of Australia , So there is less of that available on the market as Australia is the biggest and cheapest supplier . One question Ford announced it will spending $30 billion in expanding into EV , where is that coming from ? You can only make batteries with raw minerals Panasonic tied up huge long term Lithium contracts about 8 years ago . They actual supply Lithium to other battery manufacturers , till they need it themselves .

  3. The brilliancy of Musk strategy is that he expected this market collapse and positioned himself by sticking to the high end market. Tesla, in my opinion is recession proof, might just have to reinforce the bullet resistance in their cars😀.

    1. I think you are giving Elon too much credit. I am *not* saying he is unintelligent. However, I think it is more luck than anything else that Tesla is in a good position to weather a recession. For example, if this recession had occurred 3 or 4 years earlier when Tesla was going through “Model 3 production hell” and was struggling to break even, then the chances of Tesla surviving the recession would have been much slimmer.

      I agree with you that, given Tesla’s current healthy condition, Tesla might be recession proof. I don’t have hard evidence to back this up, but my experience has been that a recession (presumably including pay freezes and high inflation) hits (1) people on moderate income much harder than (2) people on significantly higher income. The people in category (1) are those who aspire to save up to buy a relatively cheap car, so pay freezes and inflation eating away at their ability to save is likely to see many of these people putting off buying a new car until the recession is over, so companies that sell relatively cheap cars are likely to see sales decline significantly. In contrast, the experience of somebody in category (2) during a recession is likely to be along the lines of “Inflation combined with a pay freeze means I can save only $40K this year instead of $50K, which is slightly annoying but I can still afford to buy an expensive car”, and this combined with a huge number of pre-orders for Tesla cars means that even if half the pre-orders are cancelled, it is likely Tesla will still be able to sell every car it makes until the recession is over.

    2. @Ciaran McHale Interesting, however Tesla could have announced a cheap car last year and did not do it, although they are totally capable of doing that really quickly (making it). This cost them a bit in valuations. I respect that lack of bs on their part and absolutely do not think this has anything to do with luck!

    3. Owning a personal vehicle will become akin to owning a house, it will become less common. Robotaxis will be to vehicles what apartments are to homes.

  4. Very thorough analysis, as usual. I agree about stock volatility and think that during bad times, companies with a resilient cash flow will be viewed favorably.

  5. It’s a once in history opportunity. ICE vehicles are going. People will avoid buying them. Tesla is leading in Electric vehicles and it’s associated industries, battery production and self driving. People have to switch to electric. Tesla is very well placed but Elon sees where he can cut back and save money in a way that wont adversely affect the company.

  6. Tesla ASPs are still due to INCREASE this year from all the hikes announced in the last 12 months. And a recession most likely will not change that. Most people who buy Tesla’s have more flexible budgets. And. If legacy OEMs really suffer, there could be a rush to TSLA as its relative strength increases. A bad recession for ICE might actually be REALLY GOOD for EV and specifically Tesla.

  7. Thank you David for your diligence, perseverance and love. I think Tesla has a shareholders meeting August 2. Do you think that they will still do a stock split this year even though we’re going into a recession? I feel depending how the economy is and where Tesla stock price is at, will determine a Split or
    Not ? What’s your opinion please

    1. Didn’t Elon say something about a possible stock split in July? Paid in dividends (which I don’t understand how this would work), do you? I’m guessing the price of Tesla stock has to be high enough $1200 to $1500 perhaps? Then how big a split and how is this determined?

    2. @Tamara Kuhn
      I hope it’s a 10 away split in August or September. But like you said, the price might have to be over 1000 , possibly. Hundred dollars a share sounds nice.

  8. Timestamps Episode #609:

    00:18 Dave’s intro & Elon’s comments

    2:52 Recession Impact

    9:45 Dave Lee’s thoughts on Tesla stock — Quick Summary

    1. Let’s talk now to sell what??? who want to talk now????
      The real one should speak out!!!
      Looks like scammers smell dirty money

  9. Just got my new model Y this week. What an experience! For me, I have had a look into the future and I am all in and never going back. If you are wondering about a Model Y, order it now. If you are wondering about other EV competition, they may not survive so factor that into your decision.

    1. This is ridiculous to think other EV makers might not survive. There are so many EV makers in the market today from legacy automakers to new start up EV like Lucid and Rivian. There are more choices now than ever before. I love tesla but not crazy predictions.

    2. I agree I experience a polestar 2 as a loaner after someone backed into my model 3. I saw the EV industry for what it was and it’s just a shill compared to Tesla. The quality of the car and the abundance of super chargers is superb compared to the other EV’s. The alternative charging stations for non Tesla ev’s is not as wide spread as you might think. I could not find a JV charger locally to my house. All these charge stations companies are also totally full of it. They are no where to be found. Tesla combines it all and the cars are world class.

    3. Me too, just got my Y over this weekend. No regret bought TSLA even at higher price. Worth it.

  10. I think the business is extremely healthy, just some PE compression going on. People should treat recession PE compression as a golden opportunity, b/c all recession will eventually pass.

    1. @No Regerts Well P:E ratio is hard on a company increasing its manufacturing capacity by 50-80 this year and again the next year . At the start of 2020 TSLA was $90 people said it was over rated then . Well 2 and 1!2 years later its at $700 and has been as high as nearly 1200 , so its had a big pullback .

    2. @Graham Oldfield thanks for the reply. Yes it has had a big pullback. I’m interested in what the value of the business is, not so much in what others are willing to pay for it.

      I used a DCF on 20m cars end of 2030. That’s about a 35% average growth rate per year. In the 2022 fin year, I upped revenue by an additional 15% to account for the price rises.

      The valuation was closer to $90 than $700. Came out at about $350-400 for me to get a 15% pa return over that time. Brilliant company, love Musk. Just a high price to pay when I’d built in a huge amount of growth

    3. @No Regerts I’m trying , owning 100 shares buy a January 23 $750 Put and sell from week calls about $25 above current price . Maximum possible loss is about 12K , but I bring in about $1700 per week minus the cost of the put ( total cost divided by 30 weeks is about $500 ) so I net about $1000 per week . It limits my upside , but it also limits my downside . Im not sure what I will do near earning might just go to cash till a few days after earning . Earnings results really don’t matter its what the market thinks and does . We are heading into a big recession but I think Tesla will be OK as they have huge order book . Im in Australia and they haven’t even a release date for orders of the Model Y , the Model 3 is 12 months wait . With the price of fuel I can save $100 a week easy over my V8 .

  11. Thank you Dave –for all you do for the humanity. Have fun with your family traveling. Thanks again

  12. If recessions in the past taught us something is that only the most resilient, most innovative, fast acting and dynamic companies survive, better yet they always grow and use it as an opportunity to position themselves better than they were before, while the less effective, slow and non innovating companies die. This thing will make Tesla a lot stronger for how I see it.

  13. Good well financed companies always do well in a recession. Bad companies that are highly geared go broke. Tesla is a good company with strong demand and is well financed. Tesla also has the ability to lower prices and maintain the same percentage net profit per vehicle. As Cory from Munro’s said ” Tesla already has a $25k car. It’s the model 3 without the FSD hardware and a slightly smaller battery and importantly Tesla has the ability to pivot quickly if need be.

  14. Gas goes up making people think about EVs more and more. Most EVs are expensive near teslas price but without the reputation. People, rich or poor will save up for the EV and wait for it. Demand won’t be impacted that much, hopefully it will be the same or up as people start seeing teslas as a worthy investment. I went from a 4 runner to Prius to a M3 in the decision making process.

  15. Recession is probably a good news for Tesla, people holding back their EV purchase will give Tesla some time to catch up the demand, and when the recession is over, the holding back demand will come back and Tesla will be able to acquire higher market share as they will have a much higher production output to meet the sky rocket demand.

  16. People choose tesla not because its an EV car but because of the technology it has to offer. There is no question that TSLA is the best EV company out there that gives you the value for your money.

    1. So true I bought my Tesla after waiting for my Mercedes to get fixed and after three months of waiting I went to a Tesla show room and bought it just like that with out test driving! Sounds crazy but I did. Now I just paid for FSD even though i don’t know how to operate it yet but I will later. Hopefully Tesla will take me wherever I want to go.

    2. Tesla will become the world’s most valued company. It’s just a matter of time. It doesn’t only over offer great value for money but adding it’s stocks to your p0rtfoli0 will easily make you rich in the long run. I have been DCA TSLA with a cost basis of €11412, i have accrued about 606 shares under the guidiance of my Finacial-Advis0r ‘Theresa Mary Chamblee’ whose skills in p0rtfoli0-diversification is unmatched.

    3. @Anthony Foden Wow congratulations!! How can i get in touch with this Finacial-Advis0r of yours if you don’t mind sharing?

    4. @Linda Nemirow She is available on the web you can look her up to see if you’ll like her services. She’s got a webpage.

  17. I believe Tesla will always bounce back from recessions. Elon has so many hidden strategies and plans he implements in his works that I believe can’t make him know his next move. I started trading with Tesla and got involved in other stocks which I trade too. Developing a strategy is what I acquired from Elon.

    1. @Billy Fin It doesn’t matter how much I make from my strategy. I got a home last month with God’s grace. It took me years to develop the strategy, and as a woman, I have failed so many times but that kept me strong and learning from my loses.

    2. @Sophia Jenny Wow, I’m amazed and congrats on your new home Sophia. Would be lovely to get in connection with you if you don’t mind. 🇭🇷

    3. @Mildred Luka Nice meeting your comments, thanks again. Sure you can connect me through my G mail.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *